India has not formally cut off Russian oil, but refiners have sharply reduced fresh purchases as uncertainty grows over US tariff policy under Donald Trump. With a proposed interim trade deal tied to curbing Russian imports now clouded by a US court ruling, Indian refiners are pausing new cargo bookings and waiting for policy clarity from New Delhi.

What Triggered the Uncertainty?

The proposed India–US interim trade pact reportedly involved lowering tariffs on Indian goods to 18% in exchange for scaling back Russian crude imports.

However, a recent ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States struck down most of Trump’s emergency tariff powers. Soon after, Trump announced a fresh 10% tariff under a different legal provision, creating confusion over the future trade framework.

Refiners now expect the legal shift could ease immediate US pressure on India to reduce Russian oil purchases — but no official clarity has emerged yet.

Russian Oil Imports Are Falling

India became one of Russia’s largest oil buyers after the Ukraine war began in 2022, capitalizing on heavy discounts when Western buyers stepped back.

At its peak:

🇮🇳 India imported ~2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude.

Now:

February imports are expected at ~1.2 million bpd.
March projections range between 800,000 and 1 million bpd.
Analysts estimate a potential drop of up to 600,000 bpd in March–April.

The pullback has left some Russian cargoes without buyers. Several shipments are reportedly floating at sea or being redirected toward China and Singapore.

Discounts on Russia’s Urals crude have widened to $15–$20 per barrel below Brent — higher than earlier in February.

Shift Toward Middle East Supplies

Major state refiners such as:

Indian Oil Corporation
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited

have recently purchased crude from Middle Eastern suppliers or issued tenders for April–May deliveries.

Why This Matters

It signals preparation for reduced Russian inflows.
It increases exposure to Middle East geopolitical risks.
Ongoing US military buildup in the region, particularly around tensions involving Iran, adds uncertainty to supply routes.

Strategic Calculation: Economics vs Geopolitics

India’s approach appears pragmatic rather than ideological:

If US Tariff Pressure Weakens:

India may resume Russian buying, especially with widened discounts and floating inventory offering quick supply options.

If Trade Deal Momentum Returns:

New Delhi may gradually rebalance purchases to maintain trade relations with Washington.

So far, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has not issued formal guidance, leaving refiners in a holding pattern.

Broader Context

Since 2022, India has maintained that its energy purchases are driven by national interest and energy security. Russian oil helped cushion domestic fuel inflation and supported refining margins.

But geopolitical balancing is increasingly complex:

Stronger US strategic ties
Ongoing Ukraine conflict
Middle East volatility
Trade negotiations with Washington

India is walking a fine diplomatic line.

Key Entities

Donald Trump — President of the United States
Supreme Court of the United States — Highest Judicial Authority in the U.S.
Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas — Government of India Oil Ministry
Indian Oil Corporation — State-Owned Oil Refining Company
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited — State-Owned Oil Marketing Company
India — Major Russian Crude Importer
Russia — Crude Oil Exporter
United States — Trade Negotiation Partner
Iran — Regional Geopolitical Factor

Final Verdict

India has not made a definitive geopolitical shift away from Russian oil — but refiners are temporarily stepping back amid US tariff uncertainty.

The next move depends on clarity from Washington’s trade policy and New Delhi’s strategic assessment. For now, India is preserving flexibility — balancing discounted energy economics with evolving diplomatic realities.